Reading Time: 8 minutes Edit: updated for stats from Credit Suisse yearbook Tl:dr Prediction is difficult … especially about the future. Take them seriously not literally. I do love a well put-together set of expected returns, and it’s been great to see asset managers getting more comfortable sharing their own in recent years (in a previous post I said … More Tour d’Expected returns
Reading Time: 4 minutes Contrary to first impressions, big wave surfing is all about risk management. In the late 1980’s legendary Hawaiian big wave surfer Brian Keaulanu looked at the new models of jet ski that were being produced like the Yamaha Waverunner that allowed the rider to sit down, and had a flash of inspiration. He realised that … More We’re all risk managers now
Reading Time: 9 minutes No plan survives first contact with the enemy Herman Von Mutke the Elder During a speech in November 1957 Eisenhower told an anecdote about the maps used during U.S. military training. Maps of the Alsace-Lorraine area of Europe were used during instruction before World War I, but educational reformers decided that the location was not … More Planning once you’ve been punched in the mouth – 3 more questions
Reading Time: 6 minutes There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen. Lenin Yes, so in case you are wondering we ARE in the Lenin quotes phase of this crisis (Warren Buffet quotes was first week of March, Charlie Munger second week of March and Peter Lynch third week of March, since you asked). … More Three questions we are all asking in this market
