Reading Time: 4 minutes Apparently only 12% of poker hands are actually won by the best cards. It’s not the cards you are dealt that determines your success, it’s how you play them … That’s one of the central themes of the excellent book by journalist Maria Konnikova, The Biggest Bluff which charts her unlikely journey from psychology researcher, … More Think Like a Poker Player
Reading Time: 3 minutes First published in Family Capital. It may surprise you to learn that the historic city of Siena, in Italy, population 30,000, covers the same area as a road junction in Texas, population zero. How much does each contribute to GDP? How much is each worth? What would you pay as an investor to own the … More The future of investing in buildings
Reading Time: 3 minutes One Way Ticket: Nine Lives on Two Wheels Compelling reading for cycling fans – a refreshingly blunt review of the last two decades of bike racing from an insider’s viewpoint. Rare to see a geneuinely new narrative emerge in such a well-covered area. amazon.co.uk The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova Poker as a metaphor … More My Summer Reading 2020
Reading Time: 3 minutes First published in Family Capital. “It is advisable for one that he should divide his money in three parts, one of which he shall invest in real estate, one of which in business, and the third part to remain always in his hands.” – The Talmud This passage appears in a record of debates between … More Have asset allocations changed in 2000 years?
Reading Time: 3 minutes As a runner, I’ve had my fair share of calf/knee aches and pains, usually it seems pretty clear to me is that what is needed is a good sports massage to work out the tension. I book into see a good physio, but imagine my frustration when a short while later I am balancing on … More Investors: Think like a Physiotherapist
Reading Time: 2 minutes To follow on from When the Rules Change. Should investors use more leverage? Usually avoided with an allergic aversion, but CALPERs recently put the cat among the pigeons with their strategic decision to use 20% leverage to meet performance targets. Clearly it all depends on the terms of the leverage. But if a foundation or … More Five questions I would love to know the answer to (but don’t)
Reading Time: 6 minutes In the 1990’s competitive swimmers got very serious about swimming large distances underwater at the start of races. This culminated most famously in Russian Denis Pankratov winning the 100m butterfly at the Atlanta olympics by swimming more than half of the first length underwater and breaking the world record. Swimming’s governing body, FINA, decided understandably … More When the Rules Change
Reading Time: 4 minutes The internal-rate-of-return is the traditional way of measuring returns in private markets (where cash-flows occur into and out of partnerships) but its shortcomings as a measure are one big reason to be wary of private markets performance, more on that here. It can be a bit like comparing apples with squirrels. One of several issues … More Apples and Squirrels – IRRs vs CAGR
Reading Time: 5 minutes It’s a psychological fact that market falls are almost always painful. But stock market rallies can be almost as hated if they take a lot of people by surprise which is the same as saying the narratives in play against it are stronger or more prevalant than those supporting it. The bounce we’ve been in … More A reason this equity rally might not be overdone
Reading Time: 5 minutes First published in Family Capital As public markets shrink investors have many reasons to focus on long-term returns in private markets, but many challenges await It has happened so slowly you may not have noticed, but the public markets are in something of a crisis. The number of listed companies in the US which today … More The rise and rise of private markets
