Reading Time: 4 minutes It’s a psychological fact that market falls are almost always painful. But stock market rallies can be almost as hated if they take a lot of people by surprise which is the same as saying the narratives in play against it are stronger or more prevalant than those supporting it. The bounce we’ve been in … More A reason this equity rally might not be overdone
Reading Time: 5 minutes First published in Family Capital As public markets shrink investors have many reasons to focus on long-term returns in private markets, but many challenges await It has happened so slowly you may not have noticed, but the public markets are in something of a crisis. The number of listed companies in the US which today … More The rise and rise of private markets
Reading Time: 4 minutes Contrary to first impressions, big wave surfing is all about risk management. In the late 1980’s legendary Hawaiian big wave surfer Brian Keaulanu looked at the new models of jet ski that were being produced like the Yamaha Waverunner that allowed the rider to sit down, and had a flash of inspiration. He realised that … More We’re all risk managers now
Reading Time: 4 minutes The internal-rate-of-return is the traditional way of measuring returns in private markets (where cash-flows occur into and out of partnerships) but its shortcomings as a measure are one big reason to be wary of private markets performance, more on that here. It can be a bit like comparing apples with squirrels. One of several issues … More Apples and Squirrels – IRRs vs CAGR
Reading Time: 2 minutes To follow on from underrated skills. In a remote world where everything’s changed and long-term is next month, which skills have gained in importance? Starting with “I’m not sure“ False certainty can be a huge risk at the best of times, even more so when the world has changed and no-one really knows for sure … More Uprated skills
Reading Time: 3 minutes Your standard finance textbook gets it wrong, or at least doesn’t tell you the full story. Three investors, three different paths of return this year (orange, green, blue). But assuming they start and end at the same point (I know they don’t quite), who feels best? And why? Which is the best investment? Simple question … More Yes, the journey matters
Reading Time: 3 minutes Sixty-six percent per year average returns (before fees) over thirty years. With no down years. Yes, you read that right. That’s the spectacular track record for Renaissance Technology’s Medallion fund that author Greg Zuckerman lays out in his investigative book on the legendary mathematican and Renaissance founder: Jim Simons (“The Man Who Solved the Market“). … More The Best Investment Track Record Ever?
Reading Time: 9 minutes No plan survives first contact with the enemy Herman Von Mutke the Elder During a speech in November 1957 Eisenhower told an anecdote about the maps used during U.S. military training. Maps of the Alsace-Lorraine area of Europe were used during instruction before World War I, but educational reformers decided that the location was not … More Planning once you’ve been punched in the mouth – 3 more questions
Reading Time: 7 minutes First published on Linkedin here I reckon there are two types of people in the modern world of knowledge work. Those that tell stories and those that have not yet realised their job is to tell stories. I’ve been in the latter camp for most of my career. On most days, I probably still am. … More So, you want to write a blog?
Reading Time: 6 minutes There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen. Lenin Yes, so in case you are wondering we ARE in the Lenin quotes phase of this crisis (Warren Buffet quotes was first week of March, Charlie Munger second week of March and Peter Lynch third week of March, since you asked). … More Three questions we are all asking in this market