Reading Time: 8 minutes Edit: updated for stats from Credit Suisse yearbook Tl:dr Prediction is difficult … especially about the future. Take them seriously not literally. I do love a well put-together set of expected returns, and it’s been great to see asset managers getting more comfortable sharing their own in recent years (in a previous post I said … More Tour d’Expected returns
Reading Time: 7 minutes Words like turning point and uncharted territory are easily overused in investing. No-one rings a bell at the top or bottom, and it’s always different this time, so usually they are no help. But it’s probably fair to say that 2022 is shaping up to present one of the more challenging periods investors will have … More Investing in a time of inflation: what they don’t tell you
Reading Time: 3 minutes how valuable is performance meaurement in investing, really? … More The Value of Measures
Reading Time: 3 minutes First published in Family Capital. It may surprise you to learn that the historic city of Siena, in Italy, population 30,000, covers the same area as a road junction in Texas, population zero. How much does each contribute to GDP? How much is each worth? What would you pay as an investor to own the … More The future of investing in buildings
Reading Time: 6 minutes In the 1990’s competitive swimmers got very serious about swimming large distances underwater at the start of races. This culminated most famously in Russian Denis Pankratov winning the 100m butterfly at the Atlanta olympics by swimming more than half of the first length underwater and breaking the world record. Swimming’s governing body, FINA, decided understandably … More When the Rules Change
Reading Time: 4 minutes Contrary to first impressions, big wave surfing is all about risk management. In the late 1980’s legendary Hawaiian big wave surfer Brian Keaulanu looked at the new models of jet ski that were being produced like the Yamaha Waverunner that allowed the rider to sit down, and had a flash of inspiration. He realised that … More We’re all risk managers now
Reading Time: 9 minutes No plan survives first contact with the enemy Herman Von Mutke the Elder During a speech in November 1957 Eisenhower told an anecdote about the maps used during U.S. military training. Maps of the Alsace-Lorraine area of Europe were used during instruction before World War I, but educational reformers decided that the location was not … More Planning once you’ve been punched in the mouth – 3 more questions
Reading Time: 6 minutes There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen. Lenin Yes, so in case you are wondering we ARE in the Lenin quotes phase of this crisis (Warren Buffet quotes was first week of March, Charlie Munger second week of March and Peter Lynch third week of March, since you asked). … More Three questions we are all asking in this market
Reading Time: 4 minutes When “Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future” has never seemed more apt The rear view mirror It’s now been just over 5 years since equity markets hit their lows at the peak of the fallout from the banking/credit crises of 2008. A lot can happen in 5 years. This year’s crop of … More A lot can happen in 5 years, the rear view mirror and the road ahead
Reading Time: 6 minutes I recently had the pleasure of attending a roundtable discussion on Liability Driven Investing, hosted by Pensions Expert. the group covered the following four questions : How do you approach LDI with schemes that do not already have it in place? Once an LDI programme is in place, does it get more sophisticated as it … More Liability Driven Investment: assets, strategies & innovation, a roundtable discussion
