Reading Time: 2 minutes War, climate change, pandemics, inflation, rising interest rates First published in LCP’s investment magazine – VISTA Original version available at lcp.foleon.com The job of investing involves reckoning with a huge amount of uncertainty and intersecting trends while making good decisions, screening out noise and resisting the temptation to overreact. That is, of course, easier said … More Turning points in uncharted territory
Reading Time: < 1 minute Thank you all for following along during this most strangest of years! One that brought us meme-stonks, the meaning of transitory and more pledges, commitments and targets than you could shake a stick at. I’ve posted less articles than usual this year but I’ll put that down to some big events: Leo turning one and … More Most read of 2021
Reading Time: 4 minutes Ok so look I know the world probably doesn’t need another article on this. Obviously you’d need to have been on Mars for the last week not to have seen the world lose their minds over the GameStop stock story, that became an iconic meme, that became a saga that turned into a real pop … More Stop. But should long-term investors care?
Reading Time: 3 minutes Your standard finance textbook gets it wrong, or at least doesn’t tell you the full story. Three investors, three different paths of return this year (orange, green, blue). But assuming they start and end at the same point (I know they don’t quite), who feels best? And why? Which is the best investment? Simple question … More Yes, the journey matters
Reading Time: 2 minutes I’ve often said that thoughtful disagreement is one of the most underrated skills. We know we should do it, but we don’t know how, and worse, we’re heavily wired against it through ego and confirmation bias. I listened to this great conversation between Ray Dalio and Reid Hoffman, which contained a ton of useful tips … More Practical tips for thoughtful disagreement
Reading Time: < 1 minute Quite big news out last week on the future of RPI, in DB pensions-land, amid everything else that’s going on. I’ve seen a variety of conflicting takes on the announcement, but clearly has implications for DB schemes. Here is a helpful reminder of some of the recent background context on the long-running issues with RPI. … More RPI surprises
Reading Time: < 1 minute A fantastic piece by the great Morgan Housel. Four reasons why complexity sells – Working through complexity feels like real work, while simplicity feels like an easy walk (too easy?) Length superficially signals effort and thoughtfulness (flawed thinking that is not challenged often enough) Things you don’t understand create a mystique around people who do … More Why Complexity Sells
Reading Time: < 1 minute The answer, according to Mercer ‘s Asset Allocation Survey is 6-8 ish if you are an institution below 1bn, and 13+ above 1bn. I’d say that’s consistent with my experience too in that 1bn tends to create a breakpoint where governance resources step up to cater for portfolios with more managers. But even with 6-8 active (plus … More How many managers does it take to …. ?
Reading Time: 2 minutes Body-Mass Index (BMI) can be helpful in giving an indication of whether someone is overweight, at risk of developing negative health effects and can give a clear call-to-action to make changes from a dietary or exercise perspective. However, take BMI to extremes and you end up concluding that the Rock, and at least half of … More All Models are Wrong but Some are Useful
Reading Time: < 1 minute There is an important concept in software development called Technical Debt. Technical debt is incurred whenever a quick fix is implemented that solves a problem but not in the most long-term optimal way form the perspective of the whole system. When you are building something fast, trying to get it working and ship it out, … More Technical Debt